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Mexico says it will maintain trade stability as tariffs loom

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says that Mexico will not retaliate with tariffs against the United States, as President Donald Trump prepares to announce sweeping new trade measures. Sheinbaum stated that Mexico will unveil a broader economic strategy aimed at strengthening the country’s position no matter what happens.

Speaking at her daily morning news conference, Sheinbaum reaffirmed Mexico’s commitment to continental free trade and emphasized her focus on stability and cooperation. “Let’s see what announcement they make, but we have a plan to strengthen the economy under any circumstance,” she said.

Sheinbaum’s strategy contrasts with the more confrontational approaches taken by leaders from other countries. She has largely avoided direct criticism of Trump, instead promoting policies that reinforce Mexico’s role within the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement framework.

Image by Alejandra Garcia 1, Shutterstock

Trump’s planned tariff announcement, scheduled for 4 p.m. Eastern Time, is expected to impact key industries in Mexico, which exports $41.9 billion worth of agricultural products to the U.S. 

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. agricultural trade with Mexico reached $30.32 billion in 2024, solidifying its position as the top export market for American farm products. Over the past decade, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico have grown at an average annual rate of 5.4 percent, with a three-year average of $29.05 billion.

Corn remained the leading U.S. agricultural export to Mexico, valued at $5.62 billion, with a volume of 25.25 million metric tons — marking a 144 percent increase over the past decade. Pork and pork products followed at $2.58 billion, reflecting a 104 percent growth. Dairy products reached $2.47 billion, while soybean exports amounted to $2.3 billion, a 61 percent increase from the ten-year average.

Poultry meat and products, excluding eggs, were valued at $1.47 billion, and beef and beef products accounted for $1.35 billion. Sugar exports surged to $1.24 billion, representing a 97 percent growth. Other notable exports included food preparations, wheat, and fresh fruit.

Despite potential trade policy uncertainties, the continued importance of Mexico as a key destination for U.S. agricultural goods. 

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CBP thwarts smuggling of 242 pounds of bologna at Texas border

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agriculture Specialists in El Paso, Texas, faced an unexpected challenge this week — 242 pounds of smuggled bologna. And, yes, that’s a whole lot of bologna to deal with.

The drama unfolded around 2 a.m. when authorities say a 52-year-old U.S. citizen from Albuquerque, New Mexico, rolled up to the inspection lanes. After he claimed he had nothing to declare (fruits, vegetables, or meat products), he was sent for a secondary inspection.

Enter CBP Agriculture Canine “Harlee,” who sniffed out trouble in the rear cargo area of the vehicle. And what did they find? Officials said 22 rolls of bologna were cleverly hidden beneath some equipment. But, there’s more — 60 Tramadol tablets were also discovered in the center console, they said. The driver was handed a $1,000 promissory note for the prescription violation, as Tramadol is a Schedule IV-controlled substance, defined as a drug with a low potential for abuse and low risk of dependence.

CBP Balogna
Image by CBP

This wasn’t the first time the same individual had been accused of being involved in a bologna-smuggling operation. Just two months ago, he was accused of attempting to sneak 55 rolls of bologna into the U.S. at the same port of entry. Needless to say, the bologna was seized and destroyed, as it’s a potential threat to U.S. agriculture by carrying foreign animal diseases.

CBP El Paso Director Field Operations Hector A. Mancha warned, “Pork products have the potential to introduce foreign animal diseases to the U.S., which can have a devastating impact on the U.S. economy and our agriculture industry.” He added, “It is always best for travelers to declare any items acquired abroad to help CBP stop the introduction of potentially harmful products.”

The case has been referred to U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Investigative and Enforcement Services, where the individual could face a penalty of up to $10,000 if convicted. This is one smuggling operation that will definitely not be going on the “roll” call.

As with the previous incident, the 22 rolls of bologna were seized and destroyed by CBP per USDA regulations.

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CNH pauses equipment shipments amid tariff uncertainty

CNH Industrial’s decision to temporarily halt farm equipment shipments from North American and European factories has put a spotlight on uncertainties surrounding global trade policies and the political maneuvering of tariff threats. The move, which the company directly links to the planned tariffs instigated by the Trump Administration, signals potential disruptions in the farm equipment supply chain at a time when the industry is already grappling with economic pressures.

The statement from CNH said: 

“We are stopping shipments from North America plants and European imports effective today. This is a temporary move until we assess the full impact of planned tariffs on pricing. There are no impacts to production, and parts shipments continue as planned. We will continue to monitor the situation.”

This announcement was somewhat of a surprise, given that CNH’s February earnings call made no mention of a possible shipment pause, and the line item did not make the upcoming summer agenda. However, the company had already been reducing production in late 2024, aiming to lower dealer inventories by over $700 million. In April 2024, the UK-based manufacturer also laid off 200 workers in Wisconsin and announced plans to further reduce its workforce by 2026.

The abrupt nature of this decision suggests CNH is taking a cautious approach, choosing to assess the full impact of tariffs, slated to implement today (barring intervention by Congress), before continuing shipments.

Although President Donald Trump has recently hinted at softening his initial hardline stance, he is moving forward with plans to implement retaliatory tariffs on countries that impose duties or other trade barriers on U.S. imports. Set to take effect on April 2, these tariffs are intended to generate revenue, reshape trade relationships, and encourage companies to shift more of their manufacturing to the United States.

“We may take less than what they’re charging. Because they’ve charged us so much, I don’t think they could take it,” Trump said Monday.

Despite projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicting a nearly 30 percent increase in net cash farm income, the latest Rural Mainstreet Index survey actually projects farm income to decline in 2025, with farmland prices and farm equipment sales falling for the 19th consecutive month. 

Bankers in rural areas are bracing for another year of low commodity prices, tighter margins, and reduced exports, creating a difficult environment for equipment purchases. The pause in CNH shipments could further complicate the situation for farmers and dealers who are already struggling with financing and profitability.

Additionally, RMI’s survey shows that only 7.5 percent of bank CEOs support returning to January 2025 tariff levels, indicating continued concern over trade policies — one of the key factors CNH cited in its decision to reassess pricing before resuming shipments.

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Image by rawf8, Shutterstock

China, which has faced 20 percent tariffs since Trump took office, has already retaliated with levies on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton. Meanwhile, the European Union has prepared its own list of agricultural and consumer products to target if Trump follows through on his threat of steep tariffs.

Many U.S. farmers fear that the tariffs could depress commodity prices and make American products such as corn, eggs, and soybeans less competitive in global markets. If foreign buyers respond with their own tariffs, exports could decline even further.

The last round of tariffs, implemented in 2018, led to an estimated $27 billion loss in agricultural exports, according to USDA economists. Much of that damage came from the trade war with China, which retaliated after Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods.

In 2018, soybeans were amount the hardest hit, according to the USDA.

The American Soybean Association responded last month to the incoming tariffs.

“Farmers are frustrated. Tariffs are not something to take lightly and ‘have fun’ with. Not only do they hit our family businesses squarely in the wallet, but they rock a core tenet on which our trading relationships are built, and that is reliability. Being able to reliably supply a quality product to them consistently,” said Caleb Ragland, American Soybean Association president and soy farmer from Magnolia, Kentucky.

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JBS to invest $100M in Vietnam global expansion

On March 31, Brazilian meatpacker JBS announced a $100 million investment plan to build two factories in Vietnam, aiming to expand its presence in the region and strengthen its position in the global market.

JBS has over 600 operations on five continents, including the Americas, Asia, Europe, Africa, and Oceania. In the United States, JBS employs over 70,000 people. The new plants in Vietnam will produce beef, pork, and poultry, primarily using raw materials imported from Brazil to supply the Vietnamese market and other Southeast Asian countries. While the investment aligns with Vietnam’s socioeconomic development goals, JBS’s expansion may spark concerns given the controversy over the company’s labor issues, suits, and environmental accusations. 

The project was formalized through a memorandum of understanding with the Vietnamese government, represented by Northern Investment Promotion, Information, and Support Centre and Sao Do Group, which oversees the Nam Dinh Vu Industrial and Non-Tariff Zone in Haiphong. This initiative aligns with Vietnam’s socioeconomic development goals, aiming to boost local production and expand its role in the international meat trade.

Renato Costa, president of Friboi, a JBS subsidiary, noted the company’s commitment to sustainable growth in the region. “The new factories in Vietnam will not just expand our production capacity but represent an investment with a purpose: to create value for the local economy, generate skilled jobs, and contribute to food security across Southeast Asia. We are investing in the future, with a focus on innovation, sustainability, and development,” he stated.

The project’s first phase will take place in Nam Dinh Vu Industrial Park, where a logistics center will be built with storage capacity and pre-processing, cutting, and packaging operations. The second phase, set to begin two years after the first unit becomes operational, will be located in southern Vietnam and include similar infrastructure, featuring a logistics center and processing plant.

“The partnership between JBS, the Vietnamese government, and our local partners represents a critical strategic step in our geographic diversification. This move not only strengthens our ability to serve the local market but also expands our global presence, creating a robust and sustainable supply chain that positions us even more competitively in the international market,” said Costa. 

With these two factories, JBS expects to create approximately 500 jobs while also launching technical training programs and technology transfers for Vietnamese workers, contributing to the development of the country’s productive sector.

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